Heavy gunfire and explosions were heard across several districts of Niamey through the night into Saturday morning, centred on Niger’s international airport, the adjoining Base 101 air force facility, and the area around the presidential palace.

By mid-morning the government said it was regaining control. What actually happened is still disputed, and the disagreement is not a minor one: two very different accounts are circulating, from officials speaking to the same news agencies.

Two accounts

A security source told AFP that soldiers from within Niger’s own armed forces had tried to enter the presidential palace and had been pushed back by the presidential guard, with exchanges of fire continuing afterwards. That is the description of a mutiny or an attempted coup.

A separate security source told Reuters that the attackers were terrorists who struck the airport first and then attempted to breach the perimeter around the presidency. Reuters said it could not immediately verify that account. That is the description of a jihadist assault on the capital.

Niger’s defence minister, General Salifou Mody, gave a version closer to the first: soldiers who had broken discipline tried to detain colleagues at Base 101 and opened fire on sensitive sites in the capital. A member of the country’s consultative council described it publicly as another attack on Base 101 that the security forces had brought under control.

An African diplomat in Niamey told AFP that, as of Saturday, the presidential guard remained loyal to General Abdourahamane Tiani, the head of the military government.

What is confirmed

Several facts are not in dispute. The shooting began overnight and continued for hours in the Plateau district, which contains the presidency, and around Diori Hamani International Airport, roughly ten kilometres away and home to a major air base. State television went off air and returned after about an hour, at around 10:00 local time.

No casualty figures had been released by Saturday evening, and no group had claimed responsibility.

The background that makes both accounts plausible

Niger has been governed by the military since July 2023, when General Tiani’s forces removed the elected president, Mohamed Bazoum. The government has since distanced itself from France and other Western partners and moved closer to Russia, along with the military governments of Mali and Burkina Faso, with whom it formed the Alliance of Sahel States.

Two pressures have run in parallel since. The first is the jihadist insurgency that has affected the country for about a decade and that the military government has not contained — attacks have reached closer to the capital over the past two years. The second is instability inside the armed forces themselves. Niger has seen repeated coups and attempted coups since independence in 1960, including an attempt on the presidential palace in 2021.

Saturday’s events are the third security incident in Niamey this year. That is why the two accounts are both credible on their face, and why the distinction matters: an insurgent attack on the capital and a revolt inside the army point to entirely different futures for the country.

What to watch

Three things will clarify matters over the coming days: whether General Tiani appears publicly, whether arrests are announced within the officer corps, and whether any armed group claims the attack. In previous incidents of this kind, the absence of a claim has tended to favour the mutiny explanation.

We will update this report as verified information emerges.

Sources

Agence France-Presse; Reuters; Al Jazeera; statements from Niger’s defence ministry reported by Nigerien and regional media.