Frontex, the European Union’s border agency, reports that irregular border crossings into the EU fell by 26 per cent in 2025 compared with the previous year, to almost 178,000. It is a large fall, and it is one of the most misread statistics in European politics.

What the number counts

Frontex counts detections of irregular crossings — events, not people. The distinction is not pedantry. Someone who attempts a crossing, is pushed back, and tries again may be counted more than once. Someone who crosses without being detected is not counted at all.

It also does not measure migration to Europe. It measures irregular crossings at external borders. It excludes people arriving on visas, students, workers, family reunification, and resettlement. It excludes Ukrainians who entered under temporary protection. A country can have record immigration and falling Frontex detections in the same year, and several have.

Frontex itself is careful about this in its publications. The care does not always survive the journey into political argument.

Why a fall is hard to attribute

Governments across the EU will claim credit for a 26 per cent decline, and some of that claim may be justified. It cannot be assumed, because detections respond to at least four things at once.

• Conditions in origin countries. A war ending or beginning changes the number of people moving far more than any European policy does.
• Agreements with transit countries. Arrangements with North African and Middle Eastern states that stop departures shift where people are held rather than whether they left.
• Route displacement. Pressure on one route tends to push traffic to another — historically more dangerous — one. A fall on the central Mediterranean can coincide with a rise on the Atlantic route to the Canaries.
• Detection capacity. Fewer detections can mean fewer crossings or less detecting, and the statistic cannot distinguish them.

The number that does not move with it

Deaths at sea do not track crossings proportionally. A route can carry fewer people and kill a higher share of them, if the crossings that remain are longer, in worse boats, or made with less prospect of rescue.

This is why organisations working on migration argue that a fall in detections should be read alongside the mortality rate rather than on its own. A policy that reduces arrivals by making the journey more dangerous produces exactly the statistical picture that a policy of orderly management produces — falling numbers — while meaning something entirely different.

How to read the next headline

Three questions make any border figure more informative. Is it counting people or events? Which routes rose while the total fell? And what happened to deaths per crossing over the same period?

A 26 per cent fall is a real change in a real measurement. It is not, on its own, evidence that fewer people are seeking to reach Europe, that any particular policy worked, or that the journey has become safer. Those are separate claims, and each needs its own number.

Sources

• Euronews — Frontex reports irregular EU border crossings down 26% to almost 178,000